There are times when the deindustrial future seems to
whisper in the night like a wind blowing through the trees, sending the easy
certainties of the present spinning like dead leaves. I had one of those
moments recently, courtesy of a
news story from 1997 that a reader forwarded me, about the spread of
secret stories among homeless children in Florida’s Dade County. These aren’t your ordinary children’s stories:
they’re myths in the making, a bricolage of images from popular religion and
folklore torn from their original contexts and pressed into the service of a
harsh new vision of reality.
God, according to Dade County’s homeless children, is
missing in action; demons stormed Heaven a while back and God hasn’t been seen
since. The mother of Christ murdered her son and morphed into the terrifying
Bloody Mary, a nightmare being who weeps blood from eyeless sockets and seeks
out children to kill them. Opposing her
is a mysterious spirit from the ocean who takes the form of a blue-skinned
woman, and who can protect children who know her secret name. The angels,
though driven out of Heaven, haven’t given up; they carry on their fight
against the demons from a hidden camp in the jungle somewhere outside Miami,
guarded by friendly alligators who devour hostile intruders. The spirits of
children who die in Dade County’s pervasive gang warfare can go to the camp and
join the war against the demons, so long as someone who knows the stories puts
a leaf on their graves.
This isn’t the sort of worldview you’d expect from people
living in a prosperous, scientifically literate industrial society, but then
the children in Dade County’s homeless shelters don’t fit that description in
any meaningful sense. They live in conditions indistinguishable from the worst
end of the Third World; their lives are defined by poverty, hunger, substance
abuse, shattered families, constant uncertainty, and lethal violence dispensed
at random. If, as Bruce Sterling suggested, the future is already here, just
not evenly distributed yet, they’re the involuntary early adopters of a future
very few people want to think about just now, but many of us will experience in
the decades ahead, and most of humanity will face in the centuries that follow:
a future we may as well call by the time-honored label "dark age."
That label actually dates from before the period most often
assigned it these days. Marcus Terentius Varro, who was considered the most
erudite Roman scholar of his time, divided up the history known to him into
three ages—an age of history, for which there were written records; before
that, an age of fable, from which oral traditions survived; and before that, a
dark age, about which no one knew anything at all. It’s a simple division but a
surprisingly useful one; even in those dark ages where literacy survived as a
living tradition, records tend to be extremely sparse and unhelpful, and when
records pick up again they tend to be thickly frosted with fable and legend for
a good long while thereafter. In a dark age, the thread of collective memory
and cultural continuity snaps, the ends are lost, and a new thread must be spun
from whatever raw materials happen to be on hand.
There are many other ways to talk about dark ages, and we’ll
get to those in later posts, but I want to focus on this aspect for the moment.
Before the Greco-Roman world Varro knew, an earlier age of complex, literate
civilizations had flourished and then fallen, and the dark age that followed
was so severe that in many regions—Greece was one of them—even the trick of
written language was lost, and had to be imported from elsewhere centuries
afterwards. The dark age following Varro’s time wasn’t quite that extreme, but
it was close enough; literacy became a rare attainment, and vast amounts of
scientific, technical, and cultural knowledge were lost. To my mind, that
discontinuity demands more attention than it’s usually been given. What is it that snaps the thread that
connects past to present, and allows the accumulated knowledge of an entire
civilization to fall into oblivion?
A recurring historical process lies behind that failure of
transmission, and it’s one that can be seen at work in those homeless children
of Dade County, whispering strange stories to one another in the night.
Arnold Toynbee, whose monumental work A Study of
History has been a major inspiration to this blog’s project, proposed
that civilizations on the way to history’s compost heap always fail in the same
general way. The most important factor that makes a rising civilization work,
he suggested, is mimesis—the universal human habit by which people imitate the
behavior and attitudes of those they admire. As long as the political class of a
civilization can inspire admiration and affection from those below it, the
civilization thrives, because the shared sense of values and purpose generated
by mimesis keeps the pressures of competing class interests from tearing it
apart.
Civilizations fail, in turn, because their political classes
lose the ability to inspire mimesis, and this happens in turn because members
of the elite become so fixated on maintaining their own power and privilege
that they stop doing an adequate job of addressing the problems facing their
society. As those problems spin further
and further out of control, the political class loses the ability to inspire
and settles instead for the ability to dominate. Outside the political class and
its hangers-on, in turn, more and more of the population becomes what Toynbee
calls an internal proletariat, an increasingly sullen underclass that still
provides the political class with its cannon fodder and labor force but no
longer sees anything to admire or emulate in those who order it around.
It can be an unsettling experience to read American
newspapers or wide-circulation magazines from before 1960 or so with eyes
sharpened by Toynbee’s analysis. Most
newspapers included a feature known as the society pages, which chronicled the
social and business activities of the well-to-do, and those were read, with a
sort of fascinated envy, very far down the social pyramid. Established figures
of the political and business world were treated with a degree of effusive
respect you won’t find in today’s media, and even those who hoped to shoulder
aside this politician or that businessman rarely dreamed of anything more
radical than filling the same positions themselves. Nowadays? Watching
politicians, businesspeople, and celebrities get dragged down by some wretched
scandal or other is this nation’s most popular spectator sport.
That’s what happens when mimesis breaks down. The failure to
inspire has disastrous consequences for the political class—when the only
things left that motivate people to seek political office are cravings for
power or money, you’ve pretty much guaranteed that the only leaders you’ll get
are the sort of incompetent hacks who dominate today’s political scene—but I
want to concentrate for a moment on the effects on the other end of the
spectrum. The failure of the political class to inspire mimesis in the rest of
society doesn’t mean that mimesis goes away. The habit of imitation is as
universal among humans as it is among other social primates. The question
becomes this: what will inspire mimesis
among the internal proletariat? What will they use as the templates for their
choices and their lives?
That’s a crucial question, because it’s not just social
cohesion that depends on mimesis. The
survival of the collective knowledge of a society—the thread connecting past
with present I mentioned earlier—also depends on the innate habit of imitation.
In most human societies, children learn most of what they need to know about
the world by imitating parents, older siblings, and the like, and in the
process the skills and knowledge base of the society is passed on to each new
generation. Complex societies like ours do the same thing in a less
straightforward way, but the principle is still the same. Back in the day, what
motivated so many young people to fiddle with chemistry sets? More often than
not, mimesis—the desire to be just like a real scientist, making real
discoveries—and that was reasonable in the days when a significant fraction of
those young people could expect to grow up to be real scientists.
That still happens, but it’s less and less common these
days, and for those who belong to the rapidly expanding underclass of American
society—the homeless children in Dade County I mentioned at the beginning of
this essay, for example—the sort of mimesis that might lead to a career in
science isn’t even an option. A great many of those children won’t live to
reach adulthood, and they know it; those who do manage to dodge the stray
bullets and the impact of collapsing public health, by and large, will spend
their days in the crumbling, crowded warehouse facilities that substitute for
schools in this country’s poorer neighborhoods, where maybe half of each
graduating high school class comes out functionally illiterate; their chances
of getting a decent job of any kind weren’t good even before the global economy
started unraveling, and let’s not even talk about those chances now.
When imitating the examples offered by the privileged
becomes a dead end, in other words, people find other examples to imitate.
That’s one of the core factors, I’m convinced, behind the collapse of the
reputation of the sciences in contemporary American society, which is so often
bemoaned by scientists and science educators.
Neil DeGrasse Tyson, say, may rhapsodize about the glories of science,
but what exactly do those glories have to offer children huddling in an
abandoned house in some down-at-heels Miami suburb, whose main concerns are
finding ways to get enough to eat and stay out of the way of the latest turf
war between the local drug gangs?
Now of course there’s been a standard kneejerk answer to
such questions for the last century or so. That answer was that science and
technology would eventually create such abundance that everyone in the world would
be able to enjoy a middle-class lifestyle and its attendant opportunities. That same claim can still be heard nowadays,
though it’s grown shrill of late after repeated disconfirmation. In point of
fact, for the lower 80% of Americans by income, the zenith of prosperity was
reached in the third quarter of the 20th century, and it’s all been downhill
from there. This isn’t an accident; what the rhetoric of progress through
science misses is that the advance of science may have been a necessary condition
for the boomtimes of the industrial age, but it was never a sufficient
condition in itself.
The other half of the equation was the resource base on
which industrial civilization depended. Three centuries ago, as industrialism
got under way, it could draw on vast amounts of cheap, concentrated energy in
the form of fossil fuels, which had been stored up in the Earth’s crust over
the previous half billion years or so. It could draw on equally huge stocks of
raw materials of various kinds, and it could also make use of a biosphere whose
capacity to absorb pollutants and other environmental insults hadn’t yet been
overloaded to the breaking point by human activity. None of those conditions
still obtain, and the popular insistence that the economic abundance of the
recent past must inevitably be maintained in the absence of the material
conditions that made it possible—well, let’s just say that makes a tolerably
good example of faith-based thinking.
Thus Tyson is on one side of the schism Toynbee traced out,
and the homeless children of Dade County and their peers and soon-to-be-peers
elsewhere in America and the world are on the other. He may denounce
superstition and praise reason and science until the cows come home, but again,
what possible relevance does that have for those children? His promises are for
the privileged, not for them; whatever benefits further advances in technology
might still have to offer will go to the dwindling circle of those who can
still afford such things, not to the poor and desperate. Of course that simply points out another way
of talking about Toynbee’s schism: Tyson
thinks he lives in a progressing society, while the homeless children of Dade
County know that they live in a collapsing one.
As the numbers shift toward the far side of that dividing
line, and more and more Americans find themselves struggling to cope with a new
and unwelcome existence in which talk about progress and prosperity amounts to
a bad joke, the failure of mimesis—as in the fallen civilizations of the
past—will become a massive social force. If the usual patterns play themselves
out, there will be a phase when the
leaders of successful drug gangs, the barbarian warbands of our decline
and fall, will attract the same rock-star charisma that clung to Attila,
Alaric, Genseric and their peers. The first traces of that process are already
visible; just as young Romans in the fourth century adopted the clothes and
manners of Visigoths, it’s not unusual to see the children of white families in
the suburban upper middle class copying the clothing and culture of inner city
gang members.
Eventually, to judge by past examples, this particular
mimesis is likely to extend a great deal further than it has so far. It’s when
the internal proletariat turns on the failed dominant minority and makes common
cause with what Toynbee calls the external proletariat—the people who live just
beyond the borders of the falling civilization, who have been shut out from its
benefits but burdened with many of its costs, and who will eventually tear the
corpse of the civilization to bloody shreds—that civilizations make the harsh
transition from decline to fall. That transition hasn’t arrived yet for our
civilization, and exactly when it will arrive is by no means a simple question,
but the first whispers of its approach are already audible for those who know
what to listen for and are willing to hear.
The age of charismatic warlords, though, is an epoch of
transition rather than an enduring reality.
The most colorful figures of that age, remade by the workings of the
popular imagination, become the focus of folk memories and epic poetry in the
ages that follow; Theodoric the Ostrogoth becomes Dietrich von Bern and the war
leader Artorius becomes the courtly King Arthur, taking their place alongside
Gilgamesh, Arjuna, Achilles, Yoshitsune, and their many equivalents. In their
new form as heroes of romance, they have a significant role to play as objects
of mimesis, but it tends to be restricted to specific classes, and finds a
place within broader patterns of mimesis that draw from other sources.
And those other sources?
What evidence we have—for the early stages of their emergence are rarely
well documented—suggests that they begin as strange stories whispered in the
night, stories that deliberately devalue the most basic images and assumptions
of a dying civilization to find meaning in a world those images and assumptions
no longer explain.
Two millennia ago, for example, the classical Greco-Roman
world imagined itself seated comfortably at the summit of history. Religious people in that culture gloried in
gods that had reduced primal chaos to permanent order and exercised a calm
rulership over the cosmos; those who rejected traditional religion in favor of
rationalism—and there was no shortage of those, any more than there is today;
it’s a common stage in the life of every civilization—rewrote the same story in
secular terms, invoking various philosophical principles of order to fill the
role of the gods of Olympus; political thinkers defined history in the same
terms, with the Roman Empire standing in for Jupiter Optimus Maximus. It was a
very comforting way of thinking about the world, if you happened to be a member
of the gradually narrowing circle of those who benefited from the existing
order of society.
To thos who formed the nucleus of the Roman Empire’s
internal proletariat, though, to slaves and the urban poor, that way of
thinking communicated no meaning and offered no hope. The scraps of evidence
that survived the fall of the Roman world suggest that a great many different
stories got whispered in the darkness, but those stories increasingly came to
center around a single narrative—a story in which the God who created
everything came down to walk the earth as a man, was condemned by a Roman court
as a common criminal, and was nailed to a cross and left hanging there to die.
That’s not the sort of worldview you’d expect from people
living in a prosperous, philosophically literate classical society, but then
the internal proletariat of the Roman world increasingly didn’t fit that
description. They were the involuntary early adopters of the post-Roman future,
and they needed stories that would give meaning to lives defined by poverty,
brutal injustice, uncertainty, and violence. That’s what they found in
Christianity, which denied the most basic assumptions of Greco-Roman culture in
order to give value to the lived experience of those for whom the Roman world
offered least.
This is what the internal proletariat of every collapsing
civilization finds in whatever stories become central to the faith of the dark
age to come. It’s what Egyptians in the
last years of the Old Kingdom found by abandoning the official Horus-cult in
favor of the worship of Osiris, who walked the earth as a man and suffered a
brutal death; it’s what many Indians in the twilight of the Guptas and many
Chinese in the aftermath of the Han dynasty found by rejecting their
traditional faiths in favor of reverence for the Buddha, who walked away from a
royal lifestyle to live by his begging bowl and search for a way to leave the
miseries of existence behind forever.
Those and the many more examples like them inspired mimesis among those
for whom the official beliefs of their civilizations had become a closed book,
and became the core around which new societies emerged.
